Votes are not counted at random. Further, you would likely get a similar result but opposite conclusion if you had done this test at a different time point (~23).
This analysis is extremely flawed. Comparing vote count updates to coin flips suggests the updates are independent events and that the votes are counted randomly, as if they all go in a big pile and shuffled before being randomly counted. That's not how votes are counted! For one, absentee & early vote ballots take longer to tally than in-person ballots, especially in places like Milwaukee that have a single 'central counting' place. People who vote early/absentee are an entirely different population from those who vote on the day of in-person!
This analysis is complete bullshit. Many have pointed out the technical details why random vote count assunption for example is wrong. Nevertheless, I am aware the graph will go viral on X cause it looks like Trump’s hair meme and confirms MAGA priors. You only wrote this piece of crap to convince people who otherwise have no clue about what p values and binomial distributions are that you are an expert and know what you are talking about. Its just appeal to authority. To those non-technical people reading this, why do you think the Trump campaign doesnt care about this? If this was truly fraud, wouldnt you want to investigate it? Even if you won, dont you want to expose the lies and get another seat in Congress? The obvious answer is that anyone who has a clue about this issue knows this graph proves nothing. Thats why the analysis is not for the pursuit of truth, but for fake news propaganda. So to the author of this I have one message: Fuck you!
I want to know what it will take for the Republican party to purchase ballot images, cast vote records, absentee records, and voter registration lists in Wisconsin.
There are ways to do a deeper investigation into an anomaly like this, but it requires resources. People like you and me don't have those resources, but the Republican Party does.
Show the same voting lines for the Presidential Race! If they match up, then it bolsters the case against fraud. If it doesn't, then I would suggest otherwise! What is the source of the time chart?
Votes are not counted at random. Further, you would likely get a similar result but opposite conclusion if you had done this test at a different time point (~23).
This analysis is extremely flawed. Comparing vote count updates to coin flips suggests the updates are independent events and that the votes are counted randomly, as if they all go in a big pile and shuffled before being randomly counted. That's not how votes are counted! For one, absentee & early vote ballots take longer to tally than in-person ballots, especially in places like Milwaukee that have a single 'central counting' place. People who vote early/absentee are an entirely different population from those who vote on the day of in-person!
are you able to share with us the data you used? I am having a hard time getting the voter data over time, as you show here.
This analysis is complete bullshit. Many have pointed out the technical details why random vote count assunption for example is wrong. Nevertheless, I am aware the graph will go viral on X cause it looks like Trump’s hair meme and confirms MAGA priors. You only wrote this piece of crap to convince people who otherwise have no clue about what p values and binomial distributions are that you are an expert and know what you are talking about. Its just appeal to authority. To those non-technical people reading this, why do you think the Trump campaign doesnt care about this? If this was truly fraud, wouldnt you want to investigate it? Even if you won, dont you want to expose the lies and get another seat in Congress? The obvious answer is that anyone who has a clue about this issue knows this graph proves nothing. Thats why the analysis is not for the pursuit of truth, but for fake news propaganda. So to the author of this I have one message: Fuck you!
I want to know what it will take for the Republican party to purchase ballot images, cast vote records, absentee records, and voter registration lists in Wisconsin.
There are ways to do a deeper investigation into an anomaly like this, but it requires resources. People like you and me don't have those resources, but the Republican Party does.
Oh, just a side-note: if that 83% Dem update came entirely from Milwaukee, then those would be reasonable margins. https://city.milwaukee.gov/election/ElectionInformation/ElectionResults
The 96% Dem update from Fulton County, GA back in 2020 raised my eyebrows a considerable amount more.
Show the same voting lines for the Presidential Race! If they match up, then it bolsters the case against fraud. If it doesn't, then I would suggest otherwise! What is the source of the time chart?