Evidence Suggesting Voter Fraud in the 2024 Michigan Senate Race

"Leaning for the tape" at the end of vote counts leaves a number of highly implausible patterns

5 highly suspicious late-night vote updates in Wayne, Genesee, Berrien and Muskegon counties contributed 18.5K net Democrat votes, almost the entire Democrat margin of victory.

They look implausible on multiple dimensions.

The updates boost Democrat votes at the expense of Republican votes, pushing the limits of what might be considered credible to a casual observer. However, they leave six properties that are consistent with fraud, and are collectively very hard to explain.

The suspicious properties are:

1. Very high Democrat two-party vote share (89%+)

2. Enormous increases in Democrat vote share relative to past votes in county (26% to 52%↑)

3. Increases in Democrat share that are huge outliers relative to all nationwide vote updates (above 99.7^th pctile)

4. Implausibly low ratios of Republican to third party votes (between 1.7:1 and 2:8.1)

5. Reductions in Republican to third party votes that are also huge national outliers.

6. Implausible Republican reductions relative to *all* third parties across the political spectrum

These updates are not the largest in their counties, but are consistent with “leaning for the tape”, pushing the limits to add as many votes as possible during the final counts in each county, when the race was close overall.

Let’s go through the properties in detail

Property #1: Very high Democrat two-party vote share (89% or more), at the limits of credibility.

Wayne: 92.0%  (12,645 votes total)

Genesee #1: 93.1% (1,024 votes total)

Genesee #2: 93.3% (3,454 votes total)

Berrien: 92.6%  (2,677 votes total)

Muskegon: 89.3% (3240 votes total)

Property #2: Much higher Democrat vote shares than all previous votes in the county, by 26% to 52%.

Wayne: 26% ↑

Genesee #1: 39% ↑

Genesee #2: 40% ↑

Berrien: 52% ↑

Muskegon: 41% ↑

These updates look nothing like votes overall in the county, where Democrat support is far lower.

Visually, it’s easy to see both properties at once when we just plot the time series of every update for the four counties. The anomalous updates are apparent in terms of being both high at an absolute level, and much higher than the rest of the points.

Wayne and Genesee have other large updates earlier in the count that also look suspicious, but not quite as extreme (these are some of the large spikes in the overall graph). The anomalous updates are huge outliers even relative to those prior ones.

Property #3: The increases in Democrat vote share are huge outliers relative to all nationwide Senate vote updates in 2024.

-They’re above the 99.7^th percentile of the distribution or higher (*FN1 at end)

-They’re between 4.0 and 6.3 standard deviations above the mean

We’re computing changes in two-party vote share in updates for House, Senate and Presidential races nationwide in 2024 – that is, the difference between two-party support in that batch, and two-party support up to that point. We have 15,218 updates of 2000 votes or more.

In percentiles of largest swings to either party, we have:

Wayne: 99.6^th percentile

Genesee #1: 99.8^th percentile

Genesee #2: 99.8^th percentile

Berrien: 99.9^th percentile

Muskegon: 99.8^th percentile

In terms of how large they are as outliers, we have:

Wayne: 4.0 standard deviations above the mean

Genesee #1: 5.2 standard deviations above the mean

Genesee #2: 5.51 standard deviations above the mean

Berrien: 6.3 standard deviations above the mean

Muskegon: 4.8 standard deviations above the mean

As a way of visualizing these, the graph below shows how extreme these increases in Democrat two-party share are in the five updates, relative to vote updates nationwide in 2024. The graph details are a bit complicated (see footnote 2), but it shows clearly how unusual the updates are.

Mostly what it’s showing is that if you’re a county with high Democrat to Republican support, you’re just generally that way across most updates. You don’t generally observe single batches of 2000+ votes that are extreme outliers in either direction relative to the rest of the count.   

Indeed, Michigan makes up 21 out of the 100 most extreme instances  (out of 15,218) of large shifts in two-party vote share in a single update. Wayne has 5, Muskegon has 3, Genesee has 3, and Berrien has 3.

Other anomalous updates are present in Clinton (1), Macomb (3), Oakland (2), and Washtenaw (1). Overall, Michigan is massively overrepresented in terms of suspicious vote updates across the board, with the 5 current ones being some of the most dubious of all.

Property #4: These batches have implausibly low ratios of Republican to Third Party votes.

Ratios in these batches are between 1.7 to 1 and 2.8 to 1. Previous batches of votes from the same counties had ratios between 7 to 1 and 19 to1.

Like with the two-party Democrat support, these updates have Republican to Third Party ratios that are not only implausibly low in absolute levels, but also are huge reductions relative to all other vote updates in the same county

Property #5. Reductions this large in Republican to Third Party votes are also almost unheard of in nationwide House, Senate and Presidential vote data.

-They are greater than the 99.6^th percentile of vote updates nationwide

-They are between 2.4 and 3.9 standard deviations below the mean

For the 5 updates in Wayne, Genesee #1 and #2, Berrien and Muskegon, we have percentiles of 99.6^th, 99.8^th, 99.8^th, 99.9^th, and 99.8^th respectively.

In terms of standard deviations above the mean, they are 2.4, 3.5, 3.5, 3.9 and 3.0 standard deviations above respectively.

Property #6: Implausible reductions in Republican support are evident relative to *every* individual third party vote total across the political spectrum: Green, Libertarian, Natural Law Party, US Taxpayer. Republican totals are implausibly low no matter what benchmark is chosen.

This includes fringe parties you’ve never even heard of.

For instance, the Genesee #1 update had Republican votes at only 7.6x votes for the Natural Law Party. By comparison, in previous votes in Genesee, Republicans had been 124x the votes of the Natural Law Party.

The same Genesee #1 update also had Republicans at 4.3x the US Taxpayers Party.

In previous updates, they had been 52x as high.

To have such large reductions relative to *all* third parties and to the Democrats is especially implausible – both intuitively, and empirically in the distribution of vote updates nationwide.

It also helps to distinguish these five updates from other batches in counties like Washtenaw and Kalamazoo. These also have unusually high two-party vote shares relative to previous updates, but the Republican to third party ratios look more in line with the rest of the county’s votes.

These 5 anomalous updates added 18,551 net votes for the Democrats , between 1:57am and 11:30am. This is 92% of the final margin of victory of 20,217 votes

Wayne: 10,135 net votes

Genesee #1: 856 net votes

Genesee #2: 2,900 net votes

Berrien: 2,207 net votes

Muskegon: 2,435 net votes

It is worth noting that slightly less extreme other updates in Wayne and Genesee added far more democratic votes – 95,326 and 95,807 votes respectively in two updates in Wayne, and 9,759 votes in Genesee.

If one believes that the 5 updates are potentially fraudulent, it is far from obvious that they are the full extent of the fraud, or the largest in overall magnitude. They are simply the cases at the end where the updates are most extreme, and thus the cases are easiest to identify.

Like in Wisconsin, the strength of the case comes from the number of different dimensions along which the updates are implausible, in ways consistent with fraud.

https://shylockholmes.substack.com/p/evidence-suggesting-voter-fraud-in

Overall, is very difficult to have any confidence in the integrity of the Michigan Senate Race.

Footnotes

FN1

For 4 of the 5 updates (except Genesee #1), the sample over which comparisons are made is all vote updates of at least 2000 votes total in House, Senate and Presidential races nationwide in 2024. For Genesee #1, which is smaller in size, the same is all updates of 1000 votes total. Limiting to similarly sized batches is important especially for the third party comparisons, otherwise the addition of one or two votes to a particular candidate will have an outsized effect on the ratios of support.

FN2

For two-party vote shares, I compute the natural log (Democrat votes in batch / Republican votes in batch). Then I take the difference between this, and the same value across all previous vote updates combined in the county in question. This “different in log two-party support ratio” is the number over which percentiles are computed, and the z-scores (number of standard deviations above the mean).

Using the log transformation is mostly a way of scaling the values to make the differences apparent, but the 5 updates are also outliers in other transformations – raw changes in support (not logs), two party percentage instead of ratios.